World Economic Outlook
Navigating a Shock-Prone World: Lessons from Cost-of-Living Crises (with Marijn A. Bolhuis, Bertrand Gruss, Chiara Maggi, Galip Kemal Ozhan, and Sihwan Yang)
IMF World Economic Outlook, October 2026, Chapter 2
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Abstract
Over the past five years, food and energy price surges have strained household budgets and fueled economic and social pressures across the world. This chapter examines cost-of-living crises: episodes marked by sharp increases in the price of basic necessities, falling purchasing power, and persistently higher inflation and inflation expectations, as well as worsening inequality and poverty. Drawing on new evidence from a global database of policy interventions and a novel economic model, it assesses how governments have responded and which policies work best. The findings show that targeted, temporary transfers offer the most effective and cost-efficient protection for vulnerable households, while preserving fiscal space and allowing prices to adjust. By contrast, measures that suppress prices can require 3 to 22 times more fiscal resources and may become ineffective when fiscal space is limited or many countries adopt them simultaneously.
Blogs
Targeted Support, Not Subsidies, Can Best Protect People When Inflation Surges (with Chiara Maggi, Galip Kemal Ozhan, and Sihwan Yang)
IMF Blog, October 6, 2026
Data
Global Distributional CPI Dataset
Coming soon
Consumer price indices by income quintile for advanced and developing economies, built from household budget shares and disaggregated national CPI data.